The number of retired workers is projected to grow rapidly starting in 2008, when the members of the post–World War II baby boom begin to reach early retirement age, and will double in less than 30 years. People are also living longer, and the birth rate is low. As a result, the ratio of workers paying Social Security taxes to people collecting benefits will fall from 3.3 to 1 in 2006 to 2.1 to 1 by 2032. The Trustees Report projects that in 2017, when the ratio will be 2.7 to 1, there will not be enough workers to pay scheduled benefits at current tax rates. The Trustees Report also projects that redemption of trust fund assets will be sufficient to allow for full payment of scheduled benefits until 2041.

The preceding paragraph, taken almost in its entirety from Fast Facts and Figures About Social Security, 2007, does a good job of explaining one of the dilemmas of Social Security, which is that the declining demographics of the U.S. population will not support the oncoming retirement wave. Once again, however, the reader is left with the impression that the real problem is more than thirty years away when the report says that “trust fund assets will be sufficient to allow for scheduled benefits until 2041.” This statement assumes that in the year 2017 the general fund of the United States government will begin redeeming the notes (the so-called trust fund assets) held by the Social Security Trust Fund. What is never mentioned, however, is that if there is no change in fiscal policy, the government will have no choice but to borrow the money in the open market to redeem the trust fund notes.